[FS 기초#4] TIC

TIC (Total Investment Cost, 총투자비) 산출

AACE, Classification of capital cost estimates

TIC 산출 관련한 class

AACE, Cost Engineering Techniques and Their Applicability for Cost Estimation of Organic Rankine Cycle Systems
((https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/7/485))
((AACE® International Professional Guidance Document No. 01 GUIDE TO COST ESTIMATE CLASSIFICATION SYSTEMS -- https://library.aacei.org//pgd01/pgd01.shtml))

Class	Type of Estimate	Description	Accuracy Range
5	Order-of-magnitude estimate(also Ratio/Feasibility)	Based on limited information. Concept screening.	Low: -20%-50%, High: +30%+100%
4	Study estimate (also Major Equipment/Factored)	List of major equipment. Project screening, feasibility assessment, concept evaluation, and preliminary budget approval.	Low: -15%-30%, High: +20%+50%
3	Preliminary design estimate (also Scope)	More detailed sizing of equipment. Budget authorization, appropriation, and/or funding.	Low: -10%-20%, High: +10%+30%
2	Definitive estimate (also Project Control)	Preliminary specification of all the equipment, utilities, instrumentation, electrical and off-sites. Control or Bid/Tender.	Low: -5%-15%, High: +5%+20%
1	Detailed estimate (also Firm/Contractor's)	Complete engineering of process and related off-sites and utilities required. Check Estimate or Bid/Tender.	Low: -3%-10%, High: +3%+15%

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Class 5 (Concept Screening) 수준의 TIC 추정

Item		2019	2020	2021	2022	2023.1-9
CE index		607.5	596.2	708.8	816.0	800.6
Capacity	200 kTA	100
	250 kTA	114				150

• capacity 증가 관련해서는 six-tenth rule(^0.6에 비례한다)을 적용
• 물가상승률 등은 CE index를 활용하여 증가 반영 -- [[https://toweringskills.com/financial-analysis/cost-indices/ | Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS), Producer Prices Indices(PPI), .. Chemical Engineering Plant Cost Index(CEPCI)]]
• 위의 예에서 2019년 capacity 200 kTA 공장 투자비를 100으로 가정한 경우, 2023년 250 kTA 공장의 투자비를 약 150로 추정

이후 location factor를 적용하여 최종 투자비를 추정합니다.

 

 

cost index와 scaling factor를 사용한 추정

주요 index

• Marshall and Swift Installation-equipment indexes, 1926=100
• Nelson-Farrar refinery construction index, 1946=100
• Chemical Engineering plant cost index, 1957-1959=100

scaling factor

• the six-tenth(6/10th) factor rule

[[https://gyansanchay.csjmu.ac.in/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Chapter-5-Cost-Estimation-Part-2.pdf | Analysis of Cost Estimation]]

 

Class 4 (Major Equipment / Factored) 수준의 TIC 추정

Major Equipment List가 있고, 각 item의 대략적인 투자비를 in-house로 구할 수 있는 경우, 전체 프로젝트의 TIC는 아래와 같이 구할 수 있습니다.

 

1. Equipment Cost 산출:

Item	KRW	JPY	USE	EUR	USD converted
Exchange Rate	1300	100	1	0.9	1
Equipment List
- Agitator
- Compressor
- Column
- Drum
- Heat Exchanger
- Pump
- Tank
Sub-Total (mm$)			100		100

 

 

2. ISBL 투자비 산출:

위의 Equipment 투자비(여기서는 $100mm을 가정함)를 이용해서 ISBL 전체의 투자비를 추정합니다. 과거 프로젝트들의 실적을 참고하여 Equipment Cost와 타 비용간의 %를 이용해서 추정합니다.

Item	Engineering	Procurement-Eq.	P-Bulk	Construction	Total
ISBL-Sum (mm$)	20	100	50	80	250
	8%	40%	20%	32%	100%

 

3. OSBL 투자비 산출: 

한편, OSBL은 각 공장의 상황에 따라 많이 바뀌게 되므로 아래과 같이 항목별로 투자비를 추정합니다.

Item	Engineering	Procuement-Eq	P-Bulk	Construction	Total
Storage tank
Warehouse
Cooling Tower
Inter-connection
Raw Water Treatment
Waste Water Treatment
OSBL-Sum (mm$)

 

4. 기타 Owner cost:

위에서 구한 ISBL, OSBL 관련 EPC (General contractor) 비용 이외에 owner cost를 추정합니다.

구분
License
건설관리
조립보험
건설이자
시운전
취득세 등
Owner-cost Sub-total

 

5. 총 TIC:

총 TIC는 아래와 같습니다.

구분
Owner cost
EPC
Total Investment Cost

 

 

class 2 수준의 TIC 추정